Domestic fares drop 25% in August for fall travel, travel app says

Potential travelers looking to fly this fall may want to book air travel now, with travel app Hopper reporting that airfares are dropping this month from peak summer prices.

“September and early October will be the cheapest times to travel, while August and early September will be the cheapest times to book travel for those months,” said Hayley Berg, Hopper’s chief economist.

The app’s Late Summer (Q3) Travel Index indicates that the average domestic air fare could drop to as low as $286 round-trip for bookings made in August. That’s down 25% from May, when average fares were over $400, and 3% lower than August of last year.

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Airfares typically drop 10-15% in any given fall as travel demand slows. “Offering lower airfares in August and September as travelers turn to fall season travel is a seasonal event, in line with airline price expectations throughout the year,” said said Berg.

But this year’s drop is steeper than normal following abnormally high spring and summer fares that result from factors including high jet fuel prices and higher-than-usual demand from a weary public. by the pandemic, she noted.

The average airfare for the rest of the year will remain at $300 or less if booked by the end of September before starting to increase again in October and November.

“We are looking at a weighted average price, so departures over the next two to three months will be the most weighted, [and] most travelers who get low prices in August will travel in September and October,” said Berg, explaining how Hopper determines the best times to buy and fly.

Travelers departing from major U.S. air hubs should find great deals this month, according to Hopper.

“Many major airports are offering lower fares this fall compared to 2019 to major destinations,” Berg said. “More than 200 to 300 destinations are cheaper this year from Chicago, Washington, DC, Houston and Atlanta.”

From New York, Hopper sees what Berg called good domestic business. “We see airfares to… major destinations up to 27% lower than 2019 prices.” Examples of airfares from New York area airports:

• Orlando, Florida for $151 (down 7.3% from 2019)
• Miami for $140 (down 27% from 2019)
• Las Vegas for $253 (5% less than 2019)

International flights from major US hubs that offer good value for money include:

• Washington, DC, to Lisbon, Portugal, for $423
• Boston to Dublin, Ireland, for $452
• Washington, DC, to Copenhagen, Denmark, for $518

OK, plane tickets are more affordable. But do cheaper prices make up for all the potential headaches faced by air travellers, such as flight cancellations or delays?

Berg said flight disruptions will remain a problem, despite a temporary improvement last month. Late rates, for example, improved in July, but then rose to 25% from 18%.

So many of the company’s customers are taking “proactive steps to guard against potential disruptions,” she said, including purchasing travel insurance products. In fact, 1 in 5 Hopper customers now opt for such protections when booking.